Markets

Energy project modelling in the Nordic power markets

The Nordic power markets of Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway share a day-ahead market but split into 12 bidding zones and two synchronous areas, with fast frequency reserves and network charges on both import and export. Gridcog models how batteries, solar and wind earn in every zone, under each market’s rules, before you invest.

  • Just over 1.25 GW of battery storage operates across Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway, and around 5 GW is expected by 2030.

  • In 2025, average day-ahead prices ranged from €9/MWh in NO4 to €83/MWh in DK2.

  • In a Gridcog model on 2025 prices, the same 1 MW / 2 MWh battery earned almost 13 times more from day-ahead trading in DK2 than in NO4.

  • Storage pays network charges on both import and export: about €3,000–4,000/MW a year in Finland, €6,000 in Sweden and €12,000 in Norway, with Denmark higher still.

How the markets are set up

How are the Nordic power markets set up?

As one day-ahead market split by transmission bottlenecks. The Nordics are often talked about as a single power market, and for day-ahead trading that is largely true. But underneath sit four countries, four transmission system operators (TSOs), 12 bidding zones and two synchronous areas, with a hydro-heavy north and a windier, more volatile south.

Norway, Sweden, Finland and eastern Denmark form the Nordic synchronous area, sharing one grid frequency. Western Denmark (Jutland and Funen) is part of the Continental European system. The two halves of Denmark are joined only by a direct current link under the Great Belt, so they run as two electrically separate systems.

CountryTSOBidding zonesSynchronous areaCharacter
01Norway
StatnettNO1–NO5NordicHydro-dominated; southern zones more exposed to Continental prices
02Sweden
Svenska kraftnätSE1–SE4NordicHydro-rich north (SE1, SE2); nuclear and most demand in SE3 and SE4
03Finland
FingridFINordicSingle zone with fast-growing wind
04Denmark
EnerginetDK1, DK2DK1 Continental, DK2 NordicHighest wind share, closely coupled to Germany

Wholesale and spreads

How does wholesale trading work in the Nordics?

Mostly through the day-ahead auction. Trading runs through EPEX SPOT and Nord Pool’s day-ahead markets, which moved to 15-minute products on 1 October 2025. Continuous intraday trading is thin by comparison, and deepest in the southern and eastern zones.

Geography drives the price gap. Large hydro reservoirs in the north flatten prices across the day, while the south, with most of the demand plus wind and interconnection to Germany and the Baltics, is far more volatile.

Average daily price spread, 2025

  • €107–111/MWh

    Denmark (DK1, DK2)

  • €73–95/MWh

    Sweden, south (SE3, SE4)

  • €79/MWh

    Finland

  • €12–54/MWh

    Norway (NO1–NO5)

  • €28–29/MWh

    Sweden, north (SE1, SE2)

Ancillary services

What ancillary services can batteries provide in the Nordics?

A wider and faster set than most of Europe. The Nordic synchronous area is small and has few spinning generators, so inertia is low and a loss of generation moves frequency further and faster than in Continental Europe. The TSOs have responded with fast frequency reserve (FFR) and a split of frequency containment reserve (FCR) into one product for normal operation and one for disturbances.

Western Denmark plays by Continental rules. DK1 shares the Continental grid’s frequency through AC links to Germany, so it uses the Continental FCR, aFRR and mFRR products rather than the Nordic FFR and FCR-N/FCR-D split, with FCR bought in four-hour blocks.

ProductWhat it doesDirectionBattery endurancePaid forMinimum bid
01Fast frequency reserve (FFR)
Arrests the first dip after a large loss, in low-inertia hours onlyUp5 or 30 secondsCapacity0.3–1.0 MW
02FCR-N
Holds frequency within 49.9–50.1 HzSymmetric60 minutes each wayCapacity and energy0.1 MW
03FCR-D up / down
Contains larger excursions (49.5–49.9 Hz / 50.1–50.5 Hz)Up or down20 minutesCapacity0.1 MW (1.0 MW in Finland)
04Automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR)
Automatically restores frequency to 50.0 HzUp and downOne hour (four hours in Denmark)Capacity and energy1.0 MW
05Manual frequency restoration reserve (mFRR)
Restores and replaces reserves on instructionUp and down15 minutesCapacity and energy1.0 MW

How much FCR can a battery sell?

Less than its nameplate power. Because a battery holds limited energy, the TSOs require it to keep counter-reserve headroom in the opposite direction when it provides FCR-N or FCR-D. That caps its bid and fixes the state of charge (SoC) window it must stay within.

The calculation uses actual power rather than nameplate, so it is net of losses and degradation: the volume a battery can sell into FCR falls every year as it ages.

Service, 1 MW / 2 MWh batteryMaximum bidMinimum SoCMaximum SoC
01FCR-N
0.75 MW37%63%
02FCR-D up
1.00 MW17%100%
03FCR-D down
1.00 MW0%83%
04FCR-D up and down together
0.83 MW14%86%

Where is ancillary value moving?

Away from FCR-D, towards mFRR and aFRR. Most of Sweden’s first batteries were built to earn from FCR-D: prequalified capacity grew from under 10 MW to around 600 MW between early 2023 and late 2024, against total demand of under 550 MW, and by February 2025 FCR-D averaged below €3/MW per hour. Batteries have since moved into mFRR, helped by the automated Nordic mFRR energy activation market, live since 4 March 2025 with 15-minute imbalance settlement.

MarketChangeWhat it means for batteries
01FCR-D (Sweden)
Battery capacity overtook demand during 2024Prices fell below €3/MW per hour by February 2025
02mFRR energy activation market
Live from 4 March 2025, with 15-minute imbalance settlementSwedish battery mFRR prequalification rose from 120 MW to nearly 600 MW in the first quarter of 2025
03aFRR energy (PICASSO)
Finland and Denmark already trade through PICASSOSweden isn’t expected to join until late 2027

Network charges

How do network charges work for Nordic batteries?

Storage pays on both import and export in all four countries, but the level varies a lot.

CountryApproximate network charges for a batteryNotes
01Finland
€3,000–4,000/MW a year for a battery cycling dailyFingrid’s 2026 storage fees are €94.75/MW a month in each direction plus about €1–2/MWh on throughput
02Sweden
About €6,000/MW a yearA site pays only the tariff for the level it connects at: transmission, regional or distribution
03Norway
About €12,000/MW a yearn/a
04Denmark
Highest; the capacity fee is about three times Finland’sDistribution tariffs come on top of Energinet’s transmission tariffs; a flexible connection can reduce the transmission capacity charge

How are Nordic batteries contracted?

Mostly merchant, but tolls have started to appear. In September 2026, Centrica and Delta Capacity signed a partial tolling agreement for the 125 MW / 300 MWh Karppio project in Finland, securing part of its revenue while keeping merchant upside. There is no capacity market comparable to GB’s or Ireland’s, only strategic peak reserves in Sweden and Finland and small island reserves in Denmark.

Where batteries earn most

Where in the Nordics do batteries earn most?

In the southern and eastern zones: SE3, SE4, DK1, DK2 and Finland. That’s where spreads are widest and flexible reserves are still short.

Denmark has the best spreads, but connecting is hard: Energinet’s queue reached around 60 GW against peak demand of roughly 7 GW, forcing a three-month pause on new connection agreements in 2026. Finland is the most balanced option, with good spreads, the lowest grid fees, access to PICASSO and the region’s first tolling deals. Sweden has the biggest fleet and solid margins in SE3 and SE4. Norway is least attractive: its hydro keeps the system flexible but leaves little price movement for a battery to trade.

  • Denmark

    Average daily spread, 2025
    €107–111/MWh
    Ancillary outlook
    Small volumes; DK1 on Continental products
    Grid fees
    Highest, about three times Finland’s
    Connection
    New prioritisation model, but still limited
  • Sweden

    Average daily spread, 2025
    €73–95/MWh (SE3, SE4); €28–29/MWh (SE1, SE2)
    Ancillary outlook
    FCR saturated; mFRR deepest; aFRR from late 2027
    Grid fees
    About €6,000/MW a year
    Connection
    Zone-dependent
  • Finland

    Average daily spread, 2025
    €79/MWh
    Ancillary outlook
    aFRR through PICASSO; growing need
    Grid fees
    Lowest, €3,000–4,000/MW a year
    Connection
    Favourable
  • Norway

    Average daily spread, 2025
    €12–54/MWh
    Ancillary outlook
    Limited battery demand
    Grid fees
    About €12,000/MW a year
    Connection
    Limited pipeline

Modelled in Gridcog

How much does location change a Nordic battery’s revenue?

By more than ten times. Gridcog Energy Analyst Joshua Elliott ran the same 1 MW / 2 MWh co-optimised battery in each of the 12 bidding zones against 2025 day-ahead prices, with wholesale trading as the only revenue stream.

Joshua ElliottEnergy Analyst

Day-ahead earnings, 2025

  • €76.1k

    DK2 (Denmark)

  • €70.5k

    DK1 (Denmark)

  • €66.8k

    SE4 (Sweden)

  • €53.0k

    FI (Finland)

  • €51.2k

    SE3 (Sweden)

  • €32.9k

    NO1 (Norway)

  • €32.2k

    NO2 (Norway)

  • €18.6k

    NO5 (Norway)

  • €17.0k

    SE2 (Sweden)

  • €16.4k

    SE1 (Sweden)

  • €13.1k

    NO3 (Norway)

  • €5.9k

    NO4 (Norway)

Does co-locating a battery with solar pay in southern Sweden?

In Josh’s model, yes. At a site at Sege in SE4, he compared 50 MW of south-facing solar on its own with the same solar co-located with a 25 MW / 50 MWh battery, over 15 years on 2025 prices, with no discount rate. The Nordic reserve rules were pre-set by Gridcog’s Industry team after benchmarking.

Solar alone didn’t recover its hardware cost. The battery’s extra wholesale and ancillary revenue more than covered its hardware and the higher network charges, turning the site’s cashflow positive.

Cashflow over 15 years

  • 50 MW solar

    −€6.8m

    Net cashflow

    Hardware (capex and opex)
    −€35.4m
    Wholesale energy
    €26.6m
    Contracts
    €1.8m
    Retail supply
    €0.9m
    Network charges
    −€0.7m
  • 50 MW solar + 25 MW / 50 MWh battery

    €9.8m

    Net cashflow

    Hardware (capex and opex)
    −€59.6m
    Wholesale energy
    €46.3m
    Ancillary services
    €22.6m
    Contracts
    €3.5m
    Retail supply
    €0.7m
    Network charges
    −€3.7m

Comparing Nordic bidding zones for a battery project?

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How Gridcog models the Nordics

How does Gridcog model the Nordic power markets?

Zone by zone, with each market’s rules built in. Gridcog models a battery across all 12 Nordic bidding zones, its revenue streams and each market’s rules, so location, reserve rules and network charges all show up in the result.

Day-ahead prices for all 12 bidding zones in the Gridcog Library, so the same project can be cloned across zones and compared.

FFR, FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR and mFRR, with energy duration requirements and bid rounding pre-set in the market library item by Gridcog’s Industry team after benchmarking, and the Continental products for DK1.

Set the maximum registered capacity and headroom and footroom requirements on each service, and losses and degradation schedules on the battery, so the FCR volume a battery can sell falls as it ages.

Import and export charges for storage, including fixed capacity fees and throughput charges, for each country’s TSO and connection level.

Put solar or wind on the same connection as the battery, autosize storage, and model tolls and floors alongside merchant revenue, with cashflows, IRR and NPV for each stakeholder.

Experts

Who are Gridcog’s Nordic market experts?

  • Joshua Elliott

    Energy Analyst

    Author of Gridcog’s analysis of the Nordic power markets and battery storage, and of its guide to flexible grid connections in GB and Ireland.

  • Pio Pius

    Business Development Manager, London

    Focused on bringing Gridcog to major clients across GB, Ireland and the Nordics.

  • Genna Boyle

    CCO and Head of EMEA

    Began her career in energy trading at Contact Energy in New Zealand, then helped set up the trading team at Limejump and went on to lead its commercial team.

Frequently asked questions

Four countries and 12 bidding zones. Norway has five (NO1 to NO5), run by Statnett; Sweden has four (SE1 to SE4), run by Svenska kraftnät; Finland is a single zone, run by Fingrid; and Denmark has two, DK1 and DK2, run by Energinet. All except DK1 share the Nordic grid frequency; DK1 is part of the Continental European system.

A power exchange. Nord Pool runs day-ahead and intraday electricity markets across the Nordic and Baltic countries and elsewhere in Europe. Since 2020 it has competed with EPEX SPOT, which also runs Nordic day-ahead and intraday markets. Both clear the same coupled European day-ahead auction, which moved to 15-minute products on 1 October 2025.

Because DK1, covering Jutland and Funen, is joined to Germany by AC lines and runs on the Continental European grid frequency. It therefore uses the Continental FCR, aFRR and mFRR products, with FCR bought in four-hour blocks, rather than the Nordic FFR and FCR-N/FCR-D split used in DK2, Sweden, Finland and Norway.

A Nordic reserve that arrests the first, steepest dip in frequency after a large loss of generation, bought only in low-inertia hours. Batteries must respond within seconds and sustain output for 5 or 30 seconds, and are paid for capacity only. Minimum bids range from 0.3 MW in Denmark to 1.0 MW in Norway and Finland. Fingrid opened its FFR market in May 2020.

An automated market for manual frequency restoration reserve energy, live since 4 March 2025, with 15-minute imbalance settlement. Batteries can submit energy bids voluntarily, without holding a capacity contract, and are paid only when activated. That lets a battery offer spare headroom hour by hour, and Swedish battery mFRR prequalification rose from 120 MW to nearly 600 MW in the first quarter of 2025.

Because of counter-reserve headroom. To provide FCR-N, a battery must hold capacity back in both directions, so it can bid only its actual power divided by 1.34: 0.75 MW for a 1 MW battery. Offering FCR-D up and down together, it can bid its power divided by 1.2. Actual power is net of losses and degradation, so the sellable volume falls as the battery ages.

No. Sweden and Finland hold strategic reserves for peak demand, and Denmark buys small reserves for its islands, but none pays batteries for capacity the way GB’s, Ireland’s or Italy’s capacity markets do. Nordic battery revenue comes from wholesale trading, frequency reserves and, increasingly, tolling agreements such as the Karppio deal in Finland.

Yes. Gridcog holds day-ahead prices for every Nordic zone and models FFR, FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR and mFRR with each market’s rules, including counter-reserve headroom, energy duration requirements and bid rounding, plus storage network charges. Joshua Elliott used it to compare the same battery across all 12 zones on 2025 prices.

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The team behind Gridcog

Fabian Le Gay Brereton, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of Gridcog

Fabian Le Gay Brereton

Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder

Previously co-founded Greensense, acquired by ERM Power (now Shell Energy).

Pete Tickler, Chief Product Officer and Co-Founder of Gridcog

Pete Tickler

Chief Product Officer & Co-Founder

Co-founded Greensense and led digital innovation at ERM Power (now Shell Energy).

Genna Boyle, Chief Commercial Officer and Head of EMEA at Gridcog

Genna Boyle

Chief Commercial Officer & Head of EMEA

More than 10 years in energy strategy, trading and renewables, with senior roles at Battery Optimiser and Limejump.