UK Grid under pressure: how businesses can handle electrification demand

Everyone loves to see a graph go up and to the right. But not the electricity grid when it comes to demand.

Electrification is here - and it's demanding

Electricity consumption is forecast to increase by 13% across industries in Great Britain by 2030 compared to 2025, and by 33% by 2040, according to the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero.

This is mainly due to energy consumers choosing - or being mandated - to electrify their energy use to reduce carbon emissions. And sometimes, it's simply because it makes more economic sense than burning fossil fuels.

A classic example of electrification is replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump and electric heating. Another big one? Transport. EVs are ramping up globally, and GB is no exception - with the share of vehicles being electrified mandated to be 80% by 2030.

But all these EVs need to charge. Sometimes that’s at home, but it could also be at work or elsewhere. Large vehicle fleets are also being electrified. Add to that the rapidly growing number of energy-hungry data centres, and you’ve got a serious jump in national electricity demand.

The grid: everyone’s favourite punching bag

One of the major challenges in this electrification story is the notoriously constrained grid. Ah yes, the grid - it seems to be the punching bag for both generators and consumers alike. But the reality is this: upgrading and maintaining the grid to handle the energy transition is a monumental task.

And this isn’t just a GB problem - it’s a global one. Everywhere that’s transitioning to cleaner energy is facing it. Take a look at how decentralised energy generation is becoming - GB is a prime example.

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The big challenge? Making the grid fit for purpose. Balancing decentralised generation with increasing demand is already leading to situations where consumers can’t even apply for a higher grid connection limit. Sure, increasing the Transmission Impact Assessment threshold from 1MW to 5MW in GB helps speed up connection times, but it doesn’t solve the deeper issue of constrained network capacity. Some connection dates are more than 10 years in the future, and grid upgrades - large or small - can be expensive.

Flexibility might just be the fix

Now, don’t get me wrong - grid upgrades should absolutely be a priority for energy planners and governments. But what can you do right now as a large energy consumer?

The answer might lie in flexible assets. And Gridcog can help you value that flexibility.

We modelled a shopping centre in London looking to increase its load capacity at a compound rate of 1.68% over 10 years. Add some public EV chargers to the mix. The grid connection limit is already set to match its peak demand, so there’s no headroom left. The commercial setup is simple - the shopping centre pays the retail and network charges.

Scenario 1: Baseline - do nothing.
Scenario 2: Add a 2MW/2h battery.
Scenario 3: Introduce a flexible load - maybe a heat pump, or just shifting the timing of certain supermarket activities like maintenance. This lets demand shift away from peak periods, avoiding breaches of the grid import limit.

Let’s look at the results.

In scenario one - the “do nothing” case - the increased load leads to 2.5MWh of unserved load by 2035, starting as early as 2026. That’s energy the site needs but can’t draw from the grid - simply not an option.

Now let’s see what a battery or demand flexibility can do. They don’t just reduce network charges; they also make sure there’s no unserved load. That means all future energy needs are met, while staying within the existing grid connection limit.

If you're a large energy user looking to model how you could unlock more value from your grid connection - or want to explore adding flexibility to avoid expensive delays - let’s talk.

Gridcog can help you understand how to make the most of what you’ve got, right now.

Watch the full video below:

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